Blackjack Odds More Players
I recently came across the following article and found it informative. As a long time blackjack player I found the information useful. This is a long read regarding the 10 most difficult hands in blackjack.
Hopefully some of you can take a few bits of knowledge away from the discussion. These are not my teachings. Don't shoot the messenger: 'Playing Better Blackjack Mastering the 10 most difficult hands by Tamburin The smiling dealer deals the cards to three players. Player #1 is dealt an Ace-2 against the dealer’s 10 upcard. The player hits and draws an Ace, hits again and draws a 4, and as the dealer intones “8 or 18,” decides to stand. Player #2 is dealt a 4-5, takes a hit, draws a 7 for 16, then hits again and busts.
Player #3 has a 7-4 and against the strong dealer’s 10 decides to hit rather than double down. Do you see what’s wrong with this picture? All three players misplayed their hands. Based on my 35+ years playing and teaching blackjack, I consider the following 10 hands as the most difficult ones for average players to master. Putting it another way, I observe players misplay these 10 hands more often than other hands.
The list is in no particular order. I’ve also summarized the correct way to play each hand and the reasons why. Never Take Even Money “Taking the even money guarantee on your blackjack when the dealer shows an Ace has got to be the most widespread sin committed by blackjack players anywhere.” (Fred Renzey, author Blackjack Blue Book II.) I agree with Renzey wholeheartedly.
So why do average players insist on taking even money? They don’t want to turn down a sure thing, because they are afraid the dealer might just have a blackjack, and they will wind up with a push. But here are the facts about why the best play is to NEVER take even money. When you have a blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, 31 percent of the time the dealer will also have blackjack and you will tie. But that means 69 percent of the time the dealer won’t have blackjack, and you will win 1.5 times your bet. If you average these two possibilities, your average gain will be 1.04 times your bet. In other words, if you always take the “sure” even money, you’ll always win 1.0 times your bet.
But if you decline the even money, your average gain will be 1.04 times your bet. So, isn’t it better to gain 1.04 units instead of one unit? The casino is counting on you to take the “sure thing;” surprise them and always decline the even money payoff. Standing on Soft 18 Against the Dealer’s 10 “I never hit a good hand of 18.” That’s the mantra of most players who believe 18 is a good hand that should never be messed with. But the facts are this: If you have a soft 18 against a dealer’s 10 and stand, you will lose more money than you win. When you hit, you also lose more than you win but you don’t lose quite as much as when you stand. So hitting soft 18 is the correct play even when your soft 18 hand consists of three or more cards.
Thus Player #1, who was dealt Ace-2-Ace-4 and stood, should have hit again. Standing on 12 Against the Dealer’s 3. “Every time I hit my 12 against a dealer’s 3, I bust, so I stand instead and let the dealer take the bust card.” This is another play that confounds average players partly because they have heard so many times that they should not risk busting their own hand when the dealer has a weak upcard showing. So why shouldn’t we stand with 12 against a 3? When you hit a 12 once, you can bust only if you draw a 10. What are the chances of that happening?
Only 4 out of 13 times on average, which means 9 out of 13 times you will survive the draw and not bust. In fact five cards—the 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9—will give you a pat hand of 17-21, so there are more cards that can help you than break you. In addition, the dealer’s chances of busting are not as great as you think. With a 3 upcard, the dealer will break about 37 percent of the time (compared to 40 percent with a 4 upcard and 42 percent with a 5 or 6 upcard). Bottom line: Even though you’ll never get rich on 12 against a 3, no matter how you play it, hitting is the better play, because in the long run it will save you money compared to standing. Not Splitting 8s Against a Dealer’s 9, 10, or Ace. “A 16 against a dealer’s 9, 10, or Ace is a loser.
Why compound my losses by splitting and betting more?”! The right play is to split the 8s. Because playing two hands with a starting count of 8 is much better than a single hand of 16. You are giving yourself two decent starting hands while breaking up a horrible 16. However, both of the split 8 hands will lose you money in the long run. But here’s the rub—your combined losses will be less than what a single hand of 16 would lose in the long run.
Yes, it’s sometimes difficult to think long term when you are staring at a pair of 8s against a dealer’s 10 with your 10 bucks on the layout. And yes, sometimes you’ll split and lose both split hands and then start second guessing yourself as to why you split in the first place.
But listen up. The correct play, the one that will save you more money during your blackjack playing career, is to split the 8s against the 9, 10, and Ace. If you don’t have the courage to make that play, you shouldn’t be playing blackjack. Not Doubling 11 Against a Dealer’s 10 “Why would anyone want to double down against a strong dealer’s 10?” Most average players, including our Player #3, get queasy about doubling down, figuring the dealer has a 10 in the hole for a pat 20. In fact, the dealer’s chances of making that pat 20 are less than your chance of making a 20 or 21! Here’s the bottom line: If you bet 10 bucks and hit your 11, you’ll win 56 percent of the time. If you double down instead, you’ll win only 54 percent of the time, but for 20 bucks.
So, what would you rather do? Win 10 dollars 56 percent of the time, or 20 dollars 54 percent of the time? The choice should be clear.
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You can’t afford not to double down on 11 against a dealer 10. Doubling on Small Soft Hands “I can never remember whether I should hit or double down on those small soft hands when the dealer shows a small upcard.” Most average players bungle their small soft hands when the dealer shows a small card.
For example, how would you play an Ace-3 against a dealer’s 3? How about Ace-5 against a dealer’s 4? There are 18 small soft hands that should be doubled, and the easiest way to remember them is to follow these three rules developed by Renzy. Never soft double against a deuce.
Always soft double against a 5 or 6. When the dealer has a 3 or 4 upcard, play by the Rule of 9. The Rule of 9 is to simply add the dealer’s upcard to your kicker (the card along with your Ace).
If they total nine or more, double down. If it’s less, hit. It’s that simple. For example, if you hold an Ace-3 against dealer’s 3 you should hit (because 3 plus 3 totals less than 9).
With Ace-5 against a dealer 4 you should double down (because 5 plus 4 totals 9). The only play that isn’t covered by Rule of 9 is to double Ace-4 against a dealer’s 4. You’ll just have to remember that one (just remember “4-4 double” and you’re set).
Playing a Soft Hand Containing Three or More Cards “My strategy card says to double soft 18 against a 4, but if I’m dealt Ace-3-4 and I can’t double down, I’m not sure if I should stand or hit?” When your soft hand contains three or more cards, the casino rules will not allow you to double down. So what should you do? Just follow these two simple rules to play these hands perfectly every time. If you have soft 17 or less, always hit (i.e., never, never stand with soft 17 or less regardless of what the dealer shows). If you have soft 18 - 21, always stand, except hit a multi-card soft 18 against a dealer 9, 10, or ace. Standing on 16 Against a Dealer’s 7. “Yeah, I’ll hit my 16 against a 10, but I’ll be damned if I hit it against a dealer’s 7.” Most average blackjack players will hit 16 against a dealer’s 10 but not against a 7, because they are more intimidated facing the 10 than the 7.
But here’s the scoop. You have the same high risk of busting when you hit 16 regardless if the dealer shows a 7 or 10. So that’s a wash. But what happens if you get lucky when you hit your 16 and draw a small card, say a deuce?
Against the dealer’s 10 you are still a solid underdog. But against the dealer’s 7, your chances of winning are greater, because the dealer may very well have a 17, and your 18 will beat his 17. So never stand on 16 against a dealer’s 7. Playing 16 against a Dealer’s 10. How am I supposed to win when I keep getting those bloody 16s when the dealer shows those blasted picture cards?” You are not alone here. A 16 against a 10 occurs fairly frequently (about once every 30 hands). How best to play this hand depends on the casino rules and the composition of your hand.
Let’s take this one step at a time. If the casino offers surrender (if you don’t know, ask the dealer), your best play is to surrender your 16 against the 10. Because when you surrender you lose 50 percent (or half) of your bet, and if you play out the hand instead, you stand to lose slightly more than 50 percent of your bet (about 53.5 percent) in the long run.
So surrendering will save you money, which is why it’s the better play. But what if the casino doesn’t offer surrender?
Your best play, by a slim margin, is to hit. However, if you have a multi-card 16 (like player #2 above, who had 4-5-7), your best play is to stand against a dealer 10. You’ve removed from play several small cards that would have come in handy if you were to draw. The removal of just a few of these small cards tips the scales ever so slightly in favor of standing over hitting.
Doubling for Less “I don’t have a good feeling about winning this double down, so I’ll play it safe and double for less.” Players who wimp out and double for less should be taken out to the shed and paddled. When the basic strategy tells you to double down, it does so because your net gain due to the extra bet you make is always greater compared to your net gain if you were to hit or stand. So why would you shoot yourself in the foot and diminish your gain by doubling for less? When the basic playing strategy says to double down, do so for the full amount of your original wager. Even if it means digging in to your wallet or purse to get the extra cash to make the full double down, do so. Here’s a final tip.
If you still feeling uneasy about whether or not you will remember the correct plays in the casino, take along some insurance in the form of a basic strategy card. They are casino legal and you shouldn’t be embarrassed to use one (after all it’s your hard earned money that you are betting). Disabled access; mobility information; Dialysis services; Hospitals; Scooters. First time visitor- what should I know? Includes places to see and things to pack!.
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Blackjack Odds Chart
Blackjack, unlike other gambling games is not considered a game of chance, it is one that you can win if you start applying some knowledge. Unlike many other games where the result depends on player luck only, this game provides probabilities depending on the player decisions. Therefore, in order to win you have to know what your probabilities are now and how and when to increase them. Before we take a look at player and dealer blackjack odds, we should consider all the parameters that affect the odds in the game. Number of decks The first thing a player should consider when choosing a table is the number of decks used in the game.
The more decks there are - the less odds the player has. (See the table - ) Dealer hits or stands on soft 17 The main rules of the game are usually written on the table felt and it may say either dealer hits or stands on soft 17.
If according to the rules dealer hits soft 17, the game gives the house a 0.2% extra edge. Rules for doubling This rule is sometimes called the 'Reno' rule, which restricts doubling only to certain hand totals.
Double 9 - 11 affects the house edge increasing it by 0.09% (8 decks game) and 0.15% (1 deck game). Double 10-11 increases the house edge by 0.17% (8 decks game) and 0.26% (1 deck game).
Doubling after Split If the casino allows a player to double after he splits a pair, the player will get a further edge of around 0.12%. Resplitting Most casinos allow players to split again after he/she splits a pair and is dealt another card of the same rank. However, if the casino does not, this means the odds favor the house. As the best hands for are a pair of Aces and 8s, there may be a special rule for Splitting Aces. If the casino allows the player to re-split Aces, the player gets a 0.03% extra edge. Moreover, in most cases if the player splits Aces, the casino will deal only one card per hand and that's it.
Allowing players to hit on a hand of Split Aces gives the player an edge of 0.13%. We do not consider this rule in our calculator due to the fact it is almost never used, especially online. Extra Rules Affecting Blackjack Odds European No-Hole-Card Rule Some blackjack variations are played with a hole card that is dealt to the dealer only after all the players have played their hands.
This rule affects player strategy when playing against dealer up 10 or an Ace. In a typical hole-card game the player would know whether the dealer has a Blackjack or not before he makes any decisions. In this game, however, the player is risking a lot more if he decides to double or split. This rule adds 0.11% to the house advantage. However, there may be some casinos that allow the player to push on all the additional bets (doubling down and splitting pairs) if the dealer happens to have Blackjack. Another Payouts on Blackjack The classic payout on player Blackjack is 3 to 2. However, some casinos change the payout to increase the house edge.
The payout on blackjack thus may vary from 1:1 to 6:5. As a Blackjack hand frequency is approximately 4.8% (see the table ), the payout of 1:1 will increase house edge by 2.3% and the payout of 6:5 - by 1.4%. The first rule (1:1) is only rarely found, while the second (6:5) can be found at some tables with a single deck blackjack game. The payout on Blackjack is generally written on a table felt.
Best tip for odds seekers The easiest way to choose the game with the highest odds is to play blackjack with no extra special rules. Do not forget where your basic odds are hidden - chance to Split, Double Down and get a 3 to 2 payout on Natural.
Dealer wins Ties Another disadvantage for the player is when the rules of the game say that dealer wins all ties. This rule is almost never used in the classic games, though it can be found in some blackjack variations. Insurance The Insurance bet is a casino trick that gives the house a huge edge. The main factor why many players take this bet lies in the fact it costs only half of the original one. However, when the player takes Insurance every time he plays the game, the house edge may raise up to 7%.
Added to all the other rules the casino sets on the game and you will see why probabilities are worth learning if you want to quit winners. Side Bets All blackjack games that offer side bets seem to be the biggest attraction for blackjack lovers.
However, if you consider blackjack odds on these bets, you will notice that no matter how big the jackpot is (as in ) or how great the payout is for the pair (as in ), the odds still favor the house and you are not likely to win. Blackjack Probabilities charts. Dealer Up Card Advantage Dealer Face Up Card Dealer Bust% Player Odds% (Using Basic Strategy) 2 35.3 9.8 3 37.56 13.4 4 40.28 18 5 42.89 23.2 6 42.08 23.9 7 25.99 14.3 8 23.86 5.4 9 23.34 -4.3 10,J,Q,K 21.43 -16.9 Ace 11.65 -16 Blackjack probabilities are calculated due to different parameters, including the dealer up card. The table on the left depicts how likely it is that dealer will go bust with certain up cards and what the player odds are in this very situation.
For example, the highest player odds are when the dealer shows a 6, as he is most likely to go bust with this hand. The lowest player odds are when the dealer's up card is a 10 or an Ace.